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Inventory Forecaster

Compute reorder point, target PO size, peak + average cash tied up in inventory, and annual carrying cost for any SKU. Free. No signup.

SKU velocity & supply inputs

Reorder point

7,080u

Trigger a PO when on-hand drops here ($60,180 at landed COGS)

Target PO size8,400 u · $71,400
Peak cash in inventory$131,580
Avg cash in inventory$65,790
Days of stock at target129 days
Annual carrying cost$13,158
Annual unit demand43,800 u

Reorder point = velocity × (lead time + safety stock). Peak cash assumes you reorder right at the trigger and a full target shipment lands. Real sawtooth inventory spends ~50% of the time at average levels, which is why avg cash is the number SBA lenders use for working-capital sizing.

Assumes constant velocity and a single supplier lead time. Seasonal SKUs need a demand-weighted velocity; multi-supplier stacks add a second reorder point per supplier. Use this for reorder planning and cash-flow sizing, not for ABC analysis.

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Related resources

  • FBA Fee Impact Calculator
  • Working Capital Estimator
  • Down Payment Calculator

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a reorder point?

The on-hand quantity that triggers a new purchase order. Set it equal to expected demand during the lead time plus a safety-stock buffer. When on-hand falls to the reorder point, the next PO should already be on the way so you don't stock out before it lands.

How much safety stock should I carry?

Depends on demand variability and supplier reliability. 7–14 days of buffer is typical for stable SKUs with reliable overseas manufacturing. 21+ days for seasonal SKUs or anything with known supplier flakiness. Subscription commerce often runs tighter (3–7 days) because demand is predictable month-to-month.

Why does the calc want "target weeks of stock"?

To size the PO. If you order every 10 weeks of demand, each PO refills from the safety-stock floor up to roughly 10 weeks of on-hand. Larger POs mean fewer purchase cycles but more cash tied up; smaller POs mean more frequent reorders but tighter cash flow.

What counts as carrying cost?

Warehousing fees + insurance + the opportunity cost of capital tied up in inventory + shrinkage/obsolescence. 20–30% of average inventory value is the textbook range. On FBA, most of that is storage fees; on a 3PL, it includes pallet storage + long-term storage surcharges.

Why do lenders care about this number?

SBA 7(a) working-capital sizing is usually based on average inventory value + one payroll cycle + one month of fixed costs. Knowing your avg cash tied up in inventory is the largest swing factor for how much working-capital support the lender will fund at close.